It seems barely three years ago that zinc was riding the crest of a wave, with prices nudging $4,000/tonne and growing concerns about the industry’s ability to supply enough metal to head off demand erosion. Today the zinc business is in free fall, with widespread production cuts, closures, investment curtailments and financial distress the order of the day.
More than other metals sectors perhaps, zinc is suffering acutely as its boom period was relatively short-lived and the profits made at the top barely offset earlier years of struggling balance sheets. As an industry it remains relatively fragmented, despite the best efforts of companies like Nyrstar to consolidate, and has few sufficiently strong players to make and take the decisions that will help it get off the roller-coaster ride of glut and famine to bring about more equitable, sustainable industry growth and profitability.
Metal Bulletin Events' Zinc & its Markets Seminar has established itself as the foremost global industry forum for debate and discussion of the key issues affecting zinc all along the supply chain from mine to marketplace. In 2009 the industry will come together in Dusseldorf at the heart of northern Europe’s zinc processing and consuming market for an in-depth examination of the metal’s near-term challenges and some thought-provoking discussion on how to break the mold to ensure future growth. And more than anything, the Seminar will provide you with the opportunity to network and share views and news with up to 200 industry executives from around the globe.
Key questions to be addressed and debated:
• Are enough cuts being made by producers to bring the market into balance? Are forced closures through bankruptcy a real danger now for zinc?
• Where is the glut – what is the relative balance between concentrate and smelter production, and metal output and demand? What financial pressures is this putting on the supply chain?
• How long is zinc demand expected to remain weak? Will there be some pockets of growth in late 2009 to help absorb some of the forecast 300,000 tonne-plus metal surplus?
• China as the wild card – what sort of import-export pattern will emerge in 2009 and beyond? Will concentrate imports recover? Will metal exports abate? Will government-backed infrastructure programmes kick-start demand?
• What do all these issues mean for prices? Has zinc hit bottom? What are the forecasts for LME prices, premiums and TC/RCs? Are producers and consumers changing their risk management strategies as a result?
• Smelter costs – are producers doing enough to bring these down? Will raw materials restraints, energy and environmental outlays continue to pressure smelters in high-cost areas? How do costs compare in China – is the competitive advantage narrowing?
• Has the economic crisis put consolidation on hold? Or is now a good time for companies to snap up bargains? Where will the next moves come from in terms of M&A and what are the perceived and real benefits?
• The longer-term picture – when the next upturn comes, will industry be ready? What should producers be doing now to survive and succeed? How can zinc as a business become more sustainable and attractive to investors?
Speakers Include:
Carl Perry, Regional Manager, Bluescope Steel International Limited, UK
Stefan Schlag, Senior Consultant, SRI Consulting, Switzerland
Ivan Mathieu, Commercial Director, Umicore Zinc Battery Materials, Belgium
A representative of Nyrstar, UK
Andrzej Szary, Commercial Director, ZGH Boleslaw, Poland
Paul White, Head of Statistics & Forecasting, International Lead Zinc Study Group, Portugal
Jeremy Woolridge, Chairman & Managing Director, B E Wedge Holdings Ltd, UK
Patrick Amerlaan, President – Metals, Boliden Commercial AB, Sweden
Carlos Frias, R&D Centre Director, Técnicas Reunidas, Spain
Tim Tu, President, United Metals Enterprise, Taiwan
A representative of CBI China, China