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Agenda Overview

Field Trips and Welcome Reception: Monday, September 25, 2017

4:30PM Metal Bulletin pricing workshop
  • How does MB gather information for and assess aluminium premiums?
  • What are the regulatory and compliance aspects for MB and contributors to its premium price assessments?
  • How does the market use MB aluminium premiums and what developments can we expect in MB's premium pricing?
  • Benchmarking outside of Europe- the rising influence of MB assessments in USA and Japan
  • Increased frequency of MB downstream premiums
Ian Walker, Global Product Development Manager and Senior Correspondent, Aluminium, Metal Bulletin Group
Perrine Faye, Global Base Metals Editor, Metal Bulletin
6:00PM Welcome Drinks Reception hosted by Alba

Day 1: Tuesday, September 26, 2017

8:30AM Opening remarks: Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C
Shaikh Daij Bin Salman Bin Daij Al Khalifa, Chairman of the Board, Aluminium Bahrain (Alba)

Session 1: keynote sessions

8:50AM Executive panel: global challenges and their impact
  • What are the key strategic priorities for the aluminium industry in light of current demand trends and prices?
  • Is the integrated or separated business model more profitable? What factors are key influencers in this regard?
  • How are global energy and other input costs impacting aluminium’s production and supply chain? What does this mean for the future?
  • What will China’s influence be on the aluminium industry and where will the next big geographical impetus come from?
  • Is diversification the way forward for the aluminium industry?
  • Will the trend of downstream investment to capture added value continue?
Tim Murray, CEO, Alba
Vladislav Soloviev, CEO, UC Rusal
Ali Al Zarouni, Executive Vice President, Midstream, Emirates Global Aluminium
Samir Cairae, CEO, Diverse Metals (Aluminium, Power and Copper), Vedanta Limited
Tolga Egrilmezer, Vice President, Sales and Marketing, Aluminium, Rio Tinto

Session 2: a closer look at the Middle East

10:00AM Middle Eastern challenges, growth areas and future prospects
  • An overview of new projects, developments and capacity across the aluminium  supply chain
  • Is a move downstream the inevitable future of the aluminium industry in the Gulf and Middle East?
  • Are energy costs, or competition for energy supplies, a concern?What will be done to reduce exposure in this area? What other challenges should be anticipated?
  • What plans are there for building refinery capacity in the Gulf? Is price volatility or security of supply the driving force here?
Mahmood Daylami, Secretary General, Gulf Aluminium Council
10:30AM What is driving Bahrain’s aluminium industry?
  • An update from Alba- current capacity and plans for Line 6 expansion
  • How have high sales and production records been achieved? What are the key strategies which have been emphasised?
  • What is the expected potential growth in demand for Bahrain’s aluminium both domestically and globally?
  • Where is Bahrain downstream development heading?
Ali Al Baqali, Chief Financial Officer, Alba
11:00AM Networking refreshment break

Session 3: the impact of developments in China, the USA and India

11:30AM Smelter capacity and demand for Chinese aluminium
  • How much primary aluminium and aluminium- based products does China export to the USA? What impact would US-based trade tariffs have on China?
  • A capacity update: have smelters been closed down? Where does current capacity lie and how robust is it financially?
  • Will China export more aluminium products? Will this be in the form of ‘semis’ or primary aluminium?
  • How committed are Chinese aluminium producers to reducing carbon emissions?
  • What are China’s infrastructure development plans and how much demand for aluminium might they create?
Oleg Mukhamedshin, Deputy CEO, Rusal
12:10PM What next for the USA?
  • Given low energy costs, will there be a revival in US smelting capacity?
  • To what extent would the Trump administration’s pledge to invest in infrastructure mean an increase in aluminium demand?
  • An update on US trade enforcement and the ramifications for upstream and downstream markets
Matt Aboud, President, Hydro Aluminium USA
12:35PM Capacity and demand prospects for India
  • What is India’s current capacity: where is this located? Where will expansion take place and how will this impact capacity?
  • Is becoming a net exporter of aluminium a possibility? Or will local semis demand rise to absorb any additional primary supply?
  • To what extent is construction driving domestic demand?
  • What other industries could stimulate usage?
Shanker Gopalkrishnan, President, Madras Consultancy Group
1:00PM Networking lunch

Session 4: market analysts panel

2:30PM Where is aluminium in the commodities cycle?
  • Can a tight or oversupplied market be expected? What key factors will influence the global aluminium market?
  • How much has China cut back? To what extent have concerns about Chinese capacity impacted prices?
  • Have production cutbacks been significant enough to have an impact on the market as a whole?
  • What is the demand picture looking like? Where can we expect good growth?
  • How much aluminium currently sits in LME warehouses? How much is off warrant?
  • Do people still view aluminium as a financing instrument? Is it worth locking aluminium up at all given interest rates, rents etc?
Nicholas Snowdon, Executive Director Metals Analyst Global Research, Standard Chartered
Ian Walker, Global Product Development Manager and Senior Correspondent, Aluminium, Metal Bulletin Group
Andreas Hommert, Industrial Metals Research, Ospraie Management
Natasha Kaneva, Executive Director, Global Commodities Research and Strategy, J.P. Morgan
3:45PM Networking refreshment break

Session 5: exchanges, premiums, trade and tariffs

4:15PM LME Presentation
4:40PM Recent developments and trends across CME aluminium premium contracts
Lucy Shitova, Manager, Metals Products, CME Group
5:05PM Q & A
5:15PM Aluminium premium markets
  • What key factors have influenced premiums - are supply-demand fundamentals more significant than other financial like currencies or interest rates?
  • An overview of premium volatility and arbitrage opportunities
  • What differing dynamics are there driving premium levels across the regions?
Yang Cao, Metals Analyst, Metal Bulletin Research
5:45PM End of day one and networking drinks reception
7:00PM Busses depart Gulf Hotel for Alba Gala Dinner
Traditional Bahraini theme

Day 2: Wednesday, September 27, 2017

8:55AM Chairpersons opening remarks

Session 6: smelter margins and raw materials

9:00AM Global supply and demand of bauxite and alumina
  • What factors are driving alumina prices? Is a less turbulent future possible?
  • How much of a shift has there been from spot market alumina purchasing?
  • In which regions will alumina demand likely increase and where will it be sourced from? How does this differ when it comes to bauxite?
  • How is Chinese demand likely to evolve? In what volumes will bauxite and alumina be sourced and from where?
Andrew Wood, Group Executive Strategy & Development, Alumina Limited
9:30AM Aluminium recycling and its markets
  • An overview in the growing market for aluminium recycling
  • Have there been any major technological advancements in aluminium recycling capability?
  • Where are the greatest volumes of aluminium scrap being generated at present?
  • To what extent can recycled aluminium be used in traditionally primary metal applications?
Mohamed Essa, Acting CEO, GARMCO
10:00AM An overview of the production cost curve: where does it make most sense to produce aluminium?
  • How do energy costs differ globally? Is captive power generation the only viable source?
  • How does this tie together with raw materials procurement and access to end-user market considerations?
  • Latest trends in smelter utility contracts- what are the impacts?
  • How are current freight rates impacting different parts of the supply chain?
  • Why are costs at their current level? Are they likely to change?
Edgardo Gelsomino, Research Director EMEARC, Aluminium Costs, Wood Mackenzie
10:30AM Networking refreshment break

Session 7: sustainability

11:00AM Bringing sustainability into the main agenda
  • To what degree has sustainability been embraced as part of the mainstream agenda for the global aluminium industry?
  • What are the commercial benefits of promoting sustainability throughout the aluminium production process?
  • What features will the ASI certification process prioritise? How will these be measured and by whom?
  • How do country by country environmental requirements differ? Are we likely to see a more level playing field in the future?
  • Aside from reducing energy consumption, where else can costs be saved? How are producers innovating to this end?
Fiona Solomon, CEO, Aluminium Stewardship Initiative
Roland Dubois, Global General Manager, Marketing and Development, Rio Tinto
Salman Dawood Salman Abdullah, Senior Vice President, Health, Safety, Sustainability, Environment & Quality, Emirates Global Aluminium
Jerome Lucaes, Director Marketing & Sustainability, Rusal
Christophe Boussemart, Sustainability Manager – Technology, Nestlé Nespresso SA
Jostein Søreide, Manager Sustainability and LC, Norsk Hydro ASA
Christine Keener, Vice President, Commercial, Alcoa

Session 8: industry-wide consumption of aluminium

12:00PM Beyond transport: other aluminium consuming industries
  • Where are the main construction based growth markets and will demand call for extrusions, sheet or other products?
  • Is there a potential growth market for aluminium-based packaging in the Gulf?
  • What direction is the power transmission and distribution industry heading and what role will aluminium play?
Jenny Wilson, Manager Global Procurement Foil, Tetra Pak
12:45PM The aviation industry’s future demand for aluminium
  • Trends in aircraft design- where does aluminium fit into aviation development trends?
  • What do current aircraft design requirements and order numbers mean for aluminium demand?
  • How do carbon composites, titanium alloys and alternative materials compare with aluminium in terms of the qualities they have to offer?
Bill Bihlman, President, Aerolytics
1:15PM End of conference and networking lunch

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