Among the people I talk to, there seems to be a bit of a polarisation: the gnarled old veterans of many cycles tell me mostly that they have no real expectation for anything other than a dull, static year. Many analysts, though – and regular readers will be aware of my sympathy for those who have to make a profession of forecasting – are beginning to talk of a more positive tone appearing, with prices ticking upwards.
Can we be optimistic?
Looking first at the second position – that next year should see strengthening metal markets – there is, for sure, some logic supporting it.
First, although QE will have to come to an end at some point, it seems that the current US administration (presidency or Federal Reserve) lacks the political courage to go too far, too fast. Instead, after several threats to taper off bond buying that drove the...