Moody’s does not expect aluminium prices and premiums to improve much in the next 12-18 months, based on downside risks from “uncertain and slow global economic recovery, and particularly the slowing growth rates in China”.
Supply-side dynamics continue to be difficult, according to the agency, given excess capacity in China and a reluctance to close high-cost plants, as well as the emergence of new capacity, especially in the Middle East.
“While demand excluding China remains [adequate], the ramp-up of new smelters, continued excess production in China and the overhang of inventories in financing transactions will continue to limit the ability for prices to...
