LORD COPPER: Where next for commodity prices?

There seems to be a growing understanding that commodity prices are not simply pausing, with a “natural” recovery back to “new paradigm” levels just around the corner.

Increasingly, analysts and forecasters are lowering their price targets and extending their expected time period for those lower prices. The single biggest factor in this mood of greater pessimism – or perhaps more correctly, realism – is of course the failure of China single-handedly to continue to drive the global economy forwards. We can argue for a long time about whether or not the growth expectations were unrealistic in the first place (which would be my view), or whether the slow pace of recovery in the west – the major market for many of China’s export products – has been responsible for the indigestion in China. But that’s actually by now pretty much purely an academic debate. We are faced with the reality of a slowing China, and, so far, at any rate, a seeming reluctance from commodity producers to cut back...


Lord Copper

August 20, 2015

13:17 GMT