SPOT ANALYSIS: Paid-unpaid Al premium spread maintained by split market dynamics

The spread between duty-paid and duty-unpaid aluminium premiums in Europe has narrowed in recent days, as market participants have begun to report generally higher levels on the unpaid side.

The duty-unpaid range stood at $100-125 per tonne on Friday November 27, with a weighted average of $116.33, up from $100-120 the day before, and a weighted average of $110. The duty-paid range remained at $150-180 per tonne.
Taking the midpoint of each range, this put the difference between the two at $52.50, or 3.55% of the high end of the London Metal Exchange official cash price from Friday, which stood at $1,479.50 per tonne.
There has been much discussion across the aluminium market in recent days over the spread between the duty-unpaid and duty-paid premiums in Europe, as the market focused on why the spread between duty-paid and duty-unpaid was not simply 3%, which is the level of duty imposed on much of the primary aluminium ingot imported into the EU.

At various junctures, spreads have either been much wider, or much narrower than...


Claire Hack

November 30, 2015

13:45 GMT