They are now predicting nickel prices will rise to $11,000 per tonne in the next three months, and $12,000 in six months, before dropping back to $10,000 in twelve months. Previously, they had forecast prices would hold at about $8,500.
“The Philippines produces nickel ore that contributes as much as 20% of global annual nickel supply [and] the recoverable nickel content in nickel ore stockpiles in China is estimated to be only two to three months of annual average Philippine supply,” the analysts said in a note.
“There appears to be no readily available alternative nickel ore supply source. It appears likely that some nickel mines will be suspended, given the mining minister’s comments.”
Their baseline scenario is that 25% of existing nickel mine output will be lost from the market for the...