FOCUS: Bearish expectations for MJP Q4 aluminium premium

The ample availability of stock and poor demand for aluminium in Asia have led market participants to expect a downtrend for fourth quarter main Japan ports (MJP) premiums, Fastmarkets heard on Monday September 2.

Widely considered Asia’s main benchmark price level, Fastmarkets assessed the aluminium P1020A MJP spot premium, cif Japan at $85-95 per tonne on Friday August 30, flat for the third consecutive week.
The third-quarter benchmark for P1020 MJP spot premiums was at $108 per tonne, which would place the current premium at a discount of 16.7% or $18 per tonne to the quarterly benchmark, but there is widespread expectation that the next quarterly premium will be significantly lower.
“The spot market has been under pressure since the end of July because it’s the summer season, which is usually a lull period for Japan,” a Japan-based trader said.
“Even prices for domestic tenders have fallen to levels below the third-quarter quarterly benchmark at around $100-110 per tonne, which shows falling demand,” the trader added.

Most market participants expect the fourth-quarter MJP premium to slump by over $10 per tonne...


Karen Ng

September 02, 2019

16:22 GMT