FOCUS: Will SHFE aluminium price rally to 15,000 yuan per tonne? [CORRECTED]

The active contract price for aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange may rise as high as 15,000 yuan ($2,128) per tonne by the end of October 2019 on the back of tightening supply, market participants have told Fastmarkets.

The most-traded November contract price for the metal started to rally at the start of September on a continuing decline in the total volumes of aluminium in stock, and reached a 10-month high of 14,420 yuan per tonne on September 9.
It was up by 25 yuan per tonne from the previous 10-month high of 14,395 yuan per tonne on August 19. This was driven by enforced output cuts at major aluminium producers Xinfa Group and China Hongqiao.
“The aluminium inventory has dropped to around 950,000 tonnes, and may fall further to 800,000 tonnes within the next two months,” an aluminium analyst in eastern China said. “This will be enough to bring more capital into the Shanghai Futures Exchange and push the price [of aluminium] to 15,000 yuan per tonne by the end of October.”

Local media reported that the total aluminium inventory had dropped...


Hui Li

September 16, 2019

18:22 GMT