LME WEEK 2019: Bears, bulls divided over fickle LME nickel price

Market analysts are preparing their predictions for base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange ahead of LME Week 2019, but the recent volatility in LME nickel prices and spreads is proving an obstacle to price forecasting for the fourth quarter of the year.

Trading houses and research analysts are giving ever wider ranges, seemingly not knowing whether to err on the side of their bear or bull cases at a time when physical market fundamentals do not reflect the futures market - a situation exacerbated by uncertainty surrounding the advent of the electric vehicle (EV) boom and how much nickel it will require.
UK broking firm Sucden Financial has offered a suitably wide LME three-month nickel price forecast of $15,500-18,500 per tonne for the fourth quarter of 2019, in line with the LME three-month nickel price’s trading range in 2019 so far.

The LME three-month nickel price has already spanned a significant $8,320-per-tonne range this year, starting at a $10,520-per-tonne low on January 2 before soaring to a year high of $18,850 per tonne on September 2 on news that Indonesia had expedited its ore export ban to January 2020 from...


Amy Hinton

October 24, 2019

11:30 GMT