2020 PREVIEW: Spot MJP aluminium premium to remain under pressure from rising supply, falling demand

The spot main Japanese port (MJP) aluminium premium is likely to remain under pressure next year due to growing supply and weak demand amid a decline in global automobile sales, market participants told Fastmarkets.

The premium, which is paid over the London Metal Exchange cash price, currently serves as the benchmark for most of the aluminium traded in Asia.
Fastmarkets has been assessing the aluminium P1020A MJP spot premium, cif Japan since 2012, with the most recent assessment of $60-70 per tonne on December 10 the lowest ever basis the midpoint.
Market participants have been particularly bearish of late, noting that even if the spot MJP premium rises in the second quarter of 2020 due to the start of the Japanese financial year in April, the premium is unlikely to surpass $115 per tonne, the highest level reached in 2019.
Quarterly premiums have also been affected, with the first deal for first-quarter aluminium ingot supply to Japan in 2020 done at a premium of $83 per tonne, the lowest quarterly premium since the fourth quarter of 2016.

“Premiums are likely...

Published

Karen Ng

December 20, 2019

07:00 GMT

Singapore