APEX Q4 2019: SP Angel team tops base metals prediction leaderboard

John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore of SP Angel clinched the top spot on the base metals leaderboard for the Apex fourth-quarter 2019 predictions, with an accuracy rating of 99.29%, while Rhona O’Connell of INTL FC Stone came top for precious metals with a rating of 99.26%.

For steel raw materials, ABN Amro’s Casper Burgering topped the leaderboard with a 97.44% accuracy score.
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Second on the base metals leaderboard was Kieren Clancy of Capital Economics with 98.64% accuracy, followed by Edward Bell of Emirates NBD with a 98.42% accuracy rating.
Bank of Muscat’s Nishant Bhavsar and Ajit Mauskar came in fourth place with a score of 98.39% while Investec’s Hunter Hillcoat and Alex Smith took fifth place at 98.34%.

Disparity in predictions in all base metals forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2019 reduced somewhat in comparison with the previous quarter, most notably in nickel, copper and aluminium. Participants were clearly more bearish for 2020 than previously, notably regarding nickel in the first quarter and aluminium for the rest of the year.
Individual base metals winners
The winner of the fourth-quarter Fastmarkets’ Apex contest for aluminium was ING’s Wenyu Yao with an accuracy rating of 99.88%. Meyer, Raevskiy and Beardsmore of SP Angel took first place for copper with a 99.03% accuracy. CLSA’s Andrew Driscoll topped the leaderboard for lead at 99.74% while the Government of Australia’s Department of Industry and Science took the top spot for nickel with 97.38% accuracy. Meyer, Raevskiy and Beardsmore of SP Angel came first for tin and zinc with 97.72% and 97.75% respectively.
Precious metals winners
In the precious metals table, INTL FC Stone’s O’Connell clinched the top spot with 99.26% accuracy followed in second place by RBCCM’s C Louney, Mark Mihaljevic and James Bell with an accuracy of 98.90%. Bank of Muscat’s Bhavsar and Mauskar came in third place with 97.19% accuracy.
SP Angel’s Meyer, Raevskiy and Beardsmore placed fourth with 96.98% accuracy in Fastmarkets’ fourth-quarter Apex precious metals contest, while ED&F Man’s Edward Meir came fifth with a rating of 96.97%.

Consensus for precious metals predictions in the fourth quarter was similar to the previous three quarters of 2019, with the exception of palladium, where the spread continued to widen. Participants had not changed their forecasts compared with previous APEX except for palladium, where their predictions were much more bullish.
Individual precious metals winners
The winner of the gold price prediction contest in the fourth quarter of 2019 was Louney of RBCCM with 99.82% accuracy. CLSA’s Driscoll came in first place for silver with 99.96% accuracy while INTL FC Stone’s O’Connell took the top spots for palladium and platinum with 98.28% and 99.35% accuracy respectively.
Steel raw materials winners

ABN Amro’s Burgering was first in the overall steel raw materials leaderboard for the fourth quarter of 2019 with 97.44% accuracy, followed by Glen Lawcock of UBS with 96.35% accuracy while Hillcoat and Smith of Investec took the third spot with 93.77%. Morningstar came in fifth place at 93.01% with RBCC’s Tyler Broda and Sam Crittenden fifth at 91.89% accuracy.
Commerzbank once more came in first place in the iron ore leaderboard for the fourth quarter with 98.91% accuracy. RBCCM’s Sam Crittenden clinched first place for coking coal predictions with 99.47% accuracy.

Amy Hinton

amy.hinton@fastmarkets.com

Published

Amy Hinton

January 30, 2020

07:00 GMT

London