FOCUS: Weak demand, surplus stock loom over LME aluminium price uptrend

The London Metal Exchange aluminium price has climbed 6.5% so far this month, piggybacking on the uptrend in the rest of the complex, even though aluminium stocks at registered warehouses are at a three-year high.

The three-month aluminium price hit an intraday high of $1,640 per tonne before closing at $1,627.50 per tonne on June 10, up from $1,528 per tonne at the start of the month. This is up from the year-to-date low of $1,455 per tonne on April 8, which was the lowest in four years.
But the uptrend almost ignores the fundamental conditions of the aluminium market.
“LME aluminium is just tagging along with the recovery ride, hitching on the backs of both copper and tin's bulls,” Fastmarkets analyst Andy Farida said. “Broad-based macroeconomic recovery has been fueled mainly by hope and optimistic outlooks that the post-Covid 19 world is going to be better. This was further complemented by supportive global economic stimulus and the promise of large infrastructure spending.”

The whole LME complex has been boosted by more positive macroeconomic trends over the past few days....


Alice Mason

June 11, 2020

16:27 GMT