Five key drivers in the aluminium Rotterdam duty-paid market for Q3

With the first half of a volatile 2020 finished, participants in the aluminium Rotterdam duty-paid market expect United States-Canada trade policies, premium forwards, spreads and a complicated 2021 mating season to drive premiums in the coming months.

Fastmarkets most recently assessed the aluminium P1020A premium, in-whs dp Rotterdam at $100-110 per tonne Tuesday June 30.
Here are five things sources told Fastmarkets are the key talking points in the European aluminium industry:
Eyes on Canada
Physical traders in Europe continue to monitor whether or not the US will put tariffs on Canadian aluminium.
Expectations of potential duties against Canada helped build bearish sentiment in the European duty-paid market, pushing premiums lower last week. Canadian aluminium is duty-free in Europe, where premiums currently remain high enough to attract metal.
In recent days, there have been increasing doubts that Canadian metal will face duties. Participants initially expected tariffs would be announced June 26, but with no announcement so far and the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) coming into effect on July 1, the prospect of an immediate duty on Canadian metal is now said to be less likely.

“We've been on...

Published

Justin Yang

Alice Mason

July 03, 2020

09:00 GMT

London