APEX Q2 2020: ED&F Man’s Meir tops Q2 2020 base metals prediction leaderboard

ED&F Man’s Ed Meir clinched the top spot on the base metals predictions leaderboard for the second quarter of 2020 with 98.87% accuracy while ING’s Wenyu Yao took the top spot for precious metals predictions over the period with a 98.75% accuracy rating.

For steel raw materials, Casper Burgering of ABN Amro topped the leaderboard with a 90.89% accuracy score.
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Second on the base metals leaderboard was Fastmarkets’ research team with 98.85% accuracy, followed by Emirates NBD’s Edward Bell a 98.79% accuracy rating. John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore from SP Angel came in fourth place with a score of 98.24% while the team from Bank Muscat took fifth place at 97.61%.

Consensus remained somewhat mixed in all base metals forecasts going into the second quarter of 2020 with disparity increasing notably for copper forecasts over the period. Participants are decidedly less bullish going into the third quarter of 2020 than previously, particularly for zinc, nickel and aluminium.
Individual base metals winners
The winner of the second-quarter 2020 Fastmarkets’ Apex contest for aluminium was the team from Morningstar with an accuracy rating of 99.82%. EIU’s Vidhi Garg took first place for copper with 98.01% accuracy. Bank Muscat’s A S Mauskar and N Bhavsar topped the leaderboard for lead at 99.80% while EIU’s Vidhi Garg took the top spot for nickel with 99.67% accuracy. Pezco Economics’ Helcio Takeda came first for tin with 99.51% accuracy while Emirates NBD’s Edward Bell topped the leaderboard for zinc with 99.82% accuracy.
Precious metals winners
ING’s Wenyu Yao took the top spot for precious metals predictions over the period with a 98.75% accuracy rating followed in second place by ED&F Man Capital Markets’ Edward Meir with an accuracy rating of 96.01%. John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore from SP Angel came in third place with 95.28% accuracy. UBS’ Glyn Lawcock placed fourth with 95.27% accuracy in Fastmarkets’ second-quarter Apex precious metals contest, while the team at Commerzbank came fifth with a rating of 93.57%.

Consensus was still hard to reach for precious metals predictions in the second quarter of 2020 having been so in the first quarter of the year. Disparity in forecasts continued to grow for platinum and palladium, particularly the latter, where the spread has continued to widen noticeably as the year progresses. Forecasts for platinum are more bearish going into the third quarter of the year as are forecasts for silver. Gold forecasts are more bullish between the third and further quarters of the year. Moving out of the first quarter of 2021 platinum forecasts are increasingly bullish while palladium forecasts are conversely significantly more bearish over the same period.
Steel Raw Materials Winners

Casper Burgering of ABN Amro topped the leaderboard with a 90.89% accuracy score, followed by John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore from SP Angel with 89.93% accuracy while Fastmarkets took the third spot with 82.02%. Glyn Lawcock of UBS came in fourth place at 80.85% with the team from Citi in fifth place with 80.31% accuracy.
Casper Burgering of ABN Amro also topped the iron ore and coking coal leaderboard with accuracy scores of 91.96% and 89.82% respectively.

Amy Hinton

amy.hinton@fastmarkets.com

Published

Amy Hinton

July 30, 2020

16:50 GMT

London