FOCUS: China arb, improved aluminium demand could push MJP quarterly to highest level since Q3 2018

Negotiations for first quarter 2021 supplies of aluminium to main Japanese ports (MJP) have begun and the quarterly premium is expected to settle significantly higher than 2020 levels.

The first deal was concluded on November 30, at a premium of $125 per tonne cif MJP, for 6,000-9,000 tonnes of aluminium ingot in total for January-March delivery.
While there are also offers out in the market from two producers at $138 per tonne. Other offers were also heard at $140 per tonne.
MJP premiums are being supported by competition for supply from China, where there is currently an open arbitrage window for aluminium and improved demand.
The last time the premium settled above $100 per tonne was the third-quarter of 2019 at $108 per tonne
But if the premium settles above at $125 per tonne or above it will be the highest since the third-quarter of 2018, when it settled at $132 per tonne

At $125 per tonne, the first deal is 42% higher than the fourth-quarter 2020 settlement of $88 per tonne and 47.7% higher...


Alice Mason

Karen Ng

Hui Li

December 01, 2020

12:29 GMT