FOCUS: Unprecedented SiMn, FeSi futures rally 'forming a bubble'

September has been a very eventful month so far for the Chinese silico-manganese and ferro-silicon markets. In the first three weeks, the futures prices for both products kept rising to new heights against market expectations.

Market participants have grown antsy in the absence of any indication of a slowdown in this upward momentum.
They believe the unprecedented price rally has gone far beyond market fundamentals, creating a speculative bubble in the country, which is the world’s largest ferro-alloy producer.
Record-breaking prices
Derivatives for ferro-silicon and silico-manganese had already recorded a strong performance in the first eight months this year, primarily due to supply concerns with main production regions continually experiencing electricity outages and energy-related constraints.
Ferro-silicon and silico-manganese futures listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) had soared by 59% and 29% respectively over the January-August.
Such gains have drawn a group of new speculators to the commodities markets. As a result, large amounts of money have entered these markets, bringing along with them uncertainty and volatility, market participants told Fastmarkets.

In September, news that several regions in southern China had ordered fresh production...


Siyi Liu

September 24, 2021

07:10 GMT