(AMM) Rising oil could burn recovery: analysts- 28 March 2011
The healthiest economies should be able to cope with the effects of soaring crude oil prices, but civil uprisings plaguing the Middle East and North Africa may dent economic recovery in some parts of the world, according to analysts with an international consulting firm.
"The major unknowns are the response by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and whether the political upheavals in Bahrain and Yemen could spread," Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Global Insight, said during a Webcast.
***MEIR ON METALS: Metals mixed, as all eyes on the Middle East and Japan-21 March 2011
Copper and General Commentary: Copper is now at $9,442, down $67, and at a low for the day. The rest of the metals have also turned slightly lower, except for tin, which is holding on to a decent gain.
The dollar is weaker right now, currently trading at just under $1.42 against the euro, while energy prices are holding on to good gains, with crude oil up by about $1.50 a barrel.
Markets remain focused primarily on the situations in both the Middle East and Japan, and that will likely remain the case for the balance of the week. Out of Libya, an allied coalition pounded Col. Gaddafi's forces with air strikes and cruise missiles over the weekend, as they seek to enforce the UN Security Council resolution passed on Friday.
LME base metals fall as world considers earthquake impact - 14th March
Lead and zinc were the only base metals not to show a significant fall in pre-market trading on the London Metal Exchange on Monday, as sentiment regarding global economic health took a beating from continued fighting in Libya and the massive earthquake in Japan.
â€œLibya is still there, and from what we see in the papers the fighting is becoming fiercer, and thatâ€™s not good for oil,â€ a category I trader said.
Alcoa suit part of Bahrain political battle: WikiLeaks - 13th March
The 2008 lawsuit filed by Aluminium Bahrain BSC (Alba) against U.S. aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. that sparked a criminal investigation may have been motivated by Bahraini political backstabbing, according to a secret diplomatic cable made public by whistle-blowing Web site WikiLeaks.
LME copper crashes through $9,000 as funds liquidate positions - 11th March
...Tensions were also mounting in the Middle East ahead of the â€œday of rageâ€ protests due to take place in Saudi Arabia after evening prayers on Friday.
â€œTensions in the Middle East and North Africa have obviously been very bearish for commodities because of the impact on oil prices, but if instability spreads to Saudi Arabia it will get much worse..."
Singapore traders brand copper 'too volatile to trade' - 11th March
Shanghai copper futures fell 7.4% this week on the back of the Libyan crisis, and market sentiment is not expected to lift with the latest Chinese official data reflecting still-high inflation.
***LME ASIAN WRAP: Copper below $9,200 as Libya crisis grows - 10th March
Copper futures plunged across London and Shanghai in early Asian trade on Thursday as violence in Libya escalated and demand from China plunged in preliminary February data.
LME three-month copper traded as low as $9,236.25 per tonne, down 0.5% from opening and 4.1% from officials.
Shanghai copper falls to 10-week low - 10th March
Shanghai copper plunged by 3.3% to a 10-week low on Thursday, following a tumble in overseas markets.
The benchmark May copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost 2,370 yuan ($361) to close at 69,230 yuan per tonne. It was as low as 69,070 yuan in the session, the lowest since December 27, when it touched 68,760 yuan.
Copper futures plunged on the London Metal Exchange on Thursday as violence in Libya escalated and preliminary China import figures showed a steep drop.
LME three-month copper traded as low as $9,135 per tonne, the lowest since December 20.
***MEIR ON METALS:Metals retreat once again as energy prices start to perk up - 9th March
Copper is now at $9,425, down $105, and has pretty much given up most of Tuesdayâ€™s gains, as another upside move in energy is starting to weigh on the complex.
On Tuesday, we saw the reverse set in, namely, a retreat in energy setting off a modest rally in base metals, some of the agriculturals, as well as US equities.
However, the turmoil in the Middle East shows no sign of waning, and as long as this is the case, we should expect to see continued volatility in the energy markets and a likely ensuing drag on metals.
***LME ASIAN WRAP: Copper climbs on talk of oil output hike - 9th March
LME copper climbed above $9,500 per tonne in early Asian trading on Wednesday after oil prices eased on reports that OPEC was considering emergency talks to increase output.
Three-month copper opened $99 above officials and traded as high as $9,538 per tonne, up $8 from opening and 1.1% from officials.
"Market worries eased slightly after the price of oil dropped for a second day, as members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries considered talks about adding production," said an analyst in Beijing
LME copper extends losses in pre-market trade - 8th March
Base metals extended losses during pre-market trading on the London Metal Exchange on Tuesday, under pressure from weak macro sentiment and technical selling.
Three-month copper was trading at $9,370 at 10:26 GMT, down from an opening price of $9,560, and extending losses seen during a sharp sell-off at the close on Monday.
Copper lost more than $300 in kerb trading on Monday, while nickel lost more than $1,200, in a sell-off sparked by escalating violence in Libya and technical cues.
*** LME ASIAN WRAP: Copper down 1.5% as global worries worsen - 8th March
London Metal Exchange copper dropped 1.5% in Asian morning trading on Tuesday as concerns about Libya picked up overnight and Greece's debt rating slid further.
Three-month copper traded as low as $9,418.5 per tonne, down 1.5% from opening and 4.4% below officials, after Moody's downgraded Greece's debt rating from Ba1 to B1, or "highly speculative".
***MEIR ON METALS: Metals trapped in tight ranges, as group keeps wary eye on energy prices - 7th March
Copper and General Commentary: Copper is now at $9,840, down $54, with prices on the defensive for a second day in a row. Trading ranges remain very tight, with a $130/MT band evident so far in Mondayâ€™s session.
Once again, the surge we are seeing in energy is weighing on metals, and we saw this best illustrated again on Friday when early gains in both LME metals and US stocks gave way late in the day. In fact, in the US equity markets, Thursday's entire 168-point gain in the US Dow Jones Industrial Average was erased at one point before the market pared its losses by the close, ending down 88.
***LME ASIAN WRAP: Cu falls as Libya conflict pushes up oil prices - 7th March
Copper on London Metals exchange retreated to below $9,900 per tonne in early Asian trading on Monday after conflict in Libya escalated and oil prices surged.
Three-month copper traded as low as $9,831.75 per tonne, down 0.4% from a low opening, and 1.5% below officials.
"US crude oil hiked to as high as $105 after a conflict near a Libyan oil facility and this hit metals prices again," said an analyst in Shanghai.
***MEIR ON METALS: Metals maintain modest gains, as the weaker dollar supports the group - 4th March
...We suspect that we will get an even firmer tone in energy prices over the course of Fridayâ€™s trading, as there always is the possibility of renewed protests heading into the weekend. This suggests that we could see rather limited upside in metals, and a possible modest retreat set in by Monday if more violence is reported from the region. In this regard, protests are scheduled in Bahrain for this weekend and rumblings out of Saudi Arabia are also making us somewhat nervous...
Cu premiums fall in EU on weak demand, high scrap availability - 3rd March
...The geopolitical uncertainty caused by the uprisings in the Middle East and north Africa (Mena) region has led prices on the LME to stay range-bound since the start of the week. The impact of the troubles in Mena upon oil prices will remain significant for the copper market.
â€œA high oil price has a negative effect on economic development, and that in turn has a negative effect on industrial metals such as copper,â€ the consumer said.
Prudent Mena Al buyers consider worst-case scenario - 3rd March
Aluminium consumers in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) are looking at alternative sources of supply as they prepare for the possibility of disruptions among producers should the political unrest continue.
â€œIâ€™ve had billet consumers in Morocco enquiring after large tonnages because theyâ€™re worried about their usual supply chain,â€ a European producer said. â€œThere is a lot of nervousness around.â€
Geo-political woes weigh on Shanghai copper - 3rd March
Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) retreated by 0.7% on Thursday as geo-political worries from Africa to Iran continued to dominate the market.
May copper on the SHFE closed at 74,140 yuan ($11,263) per tonne, down 560 yuan from Wednesday.
N.Y. copper off on oil, inventory worries - 3rd March
Copper slid slightly in New York on Wednesday against a backdrop of rising energy costs and increasing warehouse inventory stocks.
Comex contracts for May delivery, the most actively traded, dropped to $4.498 per pound, down 0.3 percent from $4.5095 per pound Tuesday.
***COMMENT: Waiting for the outcome in Mena - 1st March
Metals market participants will be watching events in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region closely after prices tumbled on the London Metal Exchange last week.
Initial effects, such as disruptions in aluminium supply and a drop in demand for rebar, will be just the tip of the iceberg should the unrest continue or spread to other countries, according to market sources.
The risk aversion shown by investors since the popular uprisings across MENA have led oil prices to exceed $100 per barrel and demonstrates the lingering fragility of the investment communityâ€™s confidence in the wake of the global economic crisis
MENA strife hits Al deliveries, fear of contagion worsens- 25 February 2011
The political turmoil afflicting parts of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has resulted in delays on aluminium shipments, and market participants warned that further troubles could threaten global economic health.